45 million iPhone sales by 2009?

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster predicts that Apple will sell 45 million iPhone units by the end of 2009. While he thinks this is an aggressive estimate, 3G iPhone, its availability internationally and possible family of separate iPhone models might just help reach this number.

He said that China is one of the most important markets for Apple with the China Mobile (possible iPhone provider) having the market of over 370 million users. He also said that iPhone is due in Japan later this year.

He also compares previous iPod sales with iPhone. After the release of the iPod, Apple has diversified it with products like iPod Mini, Nano and iPod Video. He believes that same diversification will happen for iPhone. But in the meantime price drop is imminent too, from $489 in 2007 to $314 by 2009.

Just as the company slowly diversified the iPod line-up and entered lower price points with every new version of the iPod, in this way, an analysis of initial iPod growth can serve as an initial basis for iPhone forecasts. However, data from the first 3 quarters of iPhone sales indicates that the iPhone’s unit growth curve is significantly steeper than that of the iPod.

Here are Munsters Estimates in more detail:

Munster believes that international rollout is critical for Apple. He writes:

We believe the continued international rollout of the iPhone will effectively double the addressable market every year for the next two years. The iPhone is currently available in 6 countries and it is offered exclusively through 6 carriers in those countries with a total subscriber base of 153m. With a total of 3.7m units sold through Dec-07, the iPhone’s penetration into this addressable market is about 3%. Apple has reiterated its goal to launch the iPhone in Asia in CY08, which we believe will be limited to Japan. Several other countries that may see iPhone launches in CY08 include Canada, Italy, Mexico, and Australia

However, for China, Apple might change its business model said Munster. He said that Chinese companies are unlikely to sign revenue sharing agreement, in part because of the 70% market share China Mobile has. Chinese market is less competitive then in Europe and USA, and China Mobile would be unwilling to 15$ per month revenue sharing.

He also says that the amount of unlocked iPhones is a sign of international demand, and China is ideal place to market iPhones expansion. He believes that in time Apple will change its strategy of signing exclusive revenue sharing agreements with its partners in Asia, which will enable the company to sell the iPhone in China by mid-09

It looks like Munster thinks that China is the main market Apple should concentrate on. He even thinks that Apple might change iPhone sale model, while Apple COO Tim Cook has noted that they are not mending to anyone. However, Apple might as well go for the bigger buck, and adapt to the market needs. The chart says it all.

Thanks: ZDnet

Tags: app, Apple, Asia, Canada, China, Europe, iPhone, OS, unlock, USA

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1. iPhone provider in China is still unknown
2. Apple busy with launches, CasaTunes selected, 7.5 million iPhone sales – iPhone World Links 04/08/2010
3. Apple gets up to $831 per iPhone, might slash prices in the future?

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